Your tip. Scientifically founded.
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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster💦 have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so calle𝓡d performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is determined of coincid🔥ence by 86%. 14% are no coinci♓dence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning🎀: All teams in the Bundesliga have about the same conv⛦ersion of chances.
Home teams score𝓰 more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence th꧅at in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals ꧂are scored in a match. To be precise, the number of goals has decreased over time and now amounts to ཧ2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of all wins are bas﷽ed upon a one-goal-margin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result i�🌠�ns draw. By implication 75% of matches have a winner!
Yes, but since ♎the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during 🍷the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On♛ the last two match days about 20% more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differenಌte of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lo🌞t more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly be♓tter conversion.
The market value of a team as☂ determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specifiജc average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence aver🍰ages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the pe🐈rformances of teams.
A football match is dominated by effects of coincide🌄nce. Additionally the performance level of ✃offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunities would perfectly pre🐭dict the performance level.
The goal difference is det🐼ermined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not st𝄹atistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break and only rare
There are n🔥o positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thꦫus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In tꩲhe context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective goalscoring opportunitie꧑s is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promote✃d teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you can come c🍌loser to the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of t🐲he cases the best team wins and becomes German ꦏchampion at the end of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search fo𝔍r bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effectꦑ is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is enough for today, we will let y♒ou know another rime.